Modeling Nature Connectedness Within Environmental Systems: Human-Nature Relationships from 1800 to 2020 and Beyond

This study explores how human–nature relationships have shifted over the past two centuries and into the future, focusing on the decline of nature connectedness—a key factor in both environmental stewardship and human well-being. Using a novel hybrid agent-based model calibrated with historical urbanization data, the research simulates patterns of nature connectedness from 1800 to 2020 and projects future scenarios to 2125. Results show that intergenerational transmission, more than lifetime experience alone, is the dominant driver of long-term decline, creating a socio-ecological tipping point in human–nature disconnection. Even transformative interventions, such as urban greening and enhanced engagement with nature, suggest continued disconnection through mid-century, with recovery emerging only after 2050. The findings highlight the need for systemic, sustained policies that embed nature connectedness into education, urban planning, and cultural practices to restore and sustain meaningful human–nature relationships.